This is a book that has been written by Philip Fischer, the author of the most famous book, "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits". I did google at Landmark, where I bought the book, to check if it was worthwhile buying. The reviews were not that great compared to his other book. Took it anyways...and agree with the reviews.

His son, Ken Fischer, has written an awesome "foreword" to the book which summarises his views in a very unbiased manner. Yet, I took a chance but I should say I am only half satisified with the decision.

The first section of the book is brilliant and the last was a complete disaster. Lets start with the positives. The book was written in the 60's, a time where depth of research was not that advanced as what it is today. Hence, some of his insights have still withstood the strengths of time. The frst half of the book is all about that while the second half discusses some traditional industries where he sees attractiveness and the reasons to invest in the same. This was probably more for a research report being read and I had to run through some of these sections. Finally, some chapters are probably less relevant and explains the nature of the investment industry at that time.

This section highlights some of the few important things that I found interesting. They are mostly known to all of us but one needs to appreciate the times at which these were written.

Inflation: " Because under the economic system we have established, the seeds of inflation sprout not in times of prosperity but in timesof depression. About 80% of our federal revenue is derived from corporate and indicidual income taxes. The basic source of federal funds is notoriously sensitive to the level of general business. It shrinks sharply on even moderal downturns in the general economy." Government supports through anti-cyclical measures at a time when reveneus are down sharply.

Inflation and interest rates: To curb expected inflation and the subsequent measures taken by various participants in market (businessmen, consumers and speculators) interest rates are hiked. This act prevents the act of overstocking, which inturn stokes inflation further. He explains this pretty well under two conditions : when capacity utilisation is nearing 100% and when below 100%. How it impacts inflation differently and how it postpones investment decision leading to further problems. His solutions are pretty weak (giving low interest loans to reduce strain) and probably, at best , a distant dream.

Stock price movement: What does cause stocks to rise in value are two things that are rather closely interrelated: 1) One is the increase in the a strock's earning power. 2) The other, and usually the more important, is the consensus of investment opinion as to the future course of that earnings power.

In other words "Why does a stock sell at a certain price at a certain time? It is not because of what it is doing, has done or will do. It is because what the mojority of those investors who are actually or potentially interesed in this stock think it will do".

Selling an overpriced longterm stock: Any possibility that the really unusual stock may be temporarily overpriced should not be the least inducement towards causing an invesor to sell that type of security. There are just too many changes that 1) the expected price reaction will not occur 2) if it does, the investor will wait for still lower pricesand will not get back until the stock has again climved to even higher levels 3) by the time the reaction does come the stock will have continued to climb so much that at its coming bottom it willbe still be above current prices.

Psychology and economic forecasts: The author makes an interesting comment on investors who rely heavily on economic forecasts to fall in two buckets. Cautious and eternal optimists. Cautious rarely take advantage of opportunities while eternal optimists who can always find a favorable forecast to satisfy themselves always.

"The are of common-stock investment has changed radically over the past fifty years. However, human nature en masse in relation to its attempt to make profits through buying capital assets does not change at all."

Metgers and acquisitions
The author dwelves in depth on mergers highlighting the following important facts on the same.

• Three main sources of dangers for management and shareholders: 1) Struggle for top management 2) Top management getting involved in new problems previously not encountered reducing their efficiency 3) Buyers is less aware of the problems than the seller
• Backward integration rarely involves a sizeable risk (cost reduction and efficiency programs) compared to a forward integration as the latter will start competing with its own customers and the loss benefit ratio can be skewed.
• Small acquisition may not be value destructive but can be extremely value accretive
• Acquisition of similar lines of companies is more attractive and companies should selectively acquire and not be in the business of acquisition

Management: If a poor management has long been in control, the greatest attrition is usually in the junior executive ranks. Younger men of ability will drift away to places where opportunity for promotion is greater and where new ideas and suggestions for doing things better will be welcomed rather than frowned upon.

Overall, the book has its own strengths and weakness. It is lengthy discussing sectors, impact of government decisions, impact of institutional investors, choosing investment managers, most of which were attempts to address the issues of that time.

I would say it is an excellent book with a few disappointments.

Manias, Panics and Crashes

After two very good books over the last two months, this one came as a disappointment relative to the ones read earlier. Written by Charles Kindleberger and Robert Z Aliber (for the latest edition), this is the fifth edition for the book.

The premise of the book revolves around examining the causes, impact and timing of past manias, panics and crashes. The book gives an exemplary analysis till World War II taking history back to 1700's to produce his point. Having first published in 1970's, the latter editions of the book looks at the Asian and Japanese crisis and to some extent on the tech crisis. Overall, the author gives a commanding and documted explanation to such events and how they tend to repeat themselves across crisis. The author has documented the crisis pretty well and has more importanly linked them impressively: expansion of credit, onset of crisis, burst, international ramifications and policy responses.

If anything, I like this one the best when he explains crisis:
"There was a dramatic increase in the flow of funds from these countries (Asian crisis countries) to the United States that contributed significantly to the increases in the prices of US securities; US residents who sold secutiries to foreign residents then used a very large part of their sales receipts to buy other securities from other US residents. The prices of these US securities increased further; in turn the sellers of these securities used most of their sales receipts to buy other securities from other US residents. The money became like the proverbial 'hot potato', passed from investor to investor at ever-increasing prices."

The book has its flaws too. 1) There is excessive repition in the book which kind of overemphasises the point and kind of gives a feeling that the author is thrusting his opinion upon you, which you have to accept. 2) Since the world has changed a lot, I kind of got lost of the relevance of many things. I do understand that crisis happens every time mostly with the same reasons but in different forms. However, the world has undergone significant change pre and post world war. 3) The book is very slow and is definitely not a page-turner. The layout of the entire book is well done but it could have been shortened much more.

Overall, this book too is Wiley's classic. Has its own merits and flaws. I dont think one would be lost by not reading this book and hence one can definitely skip it.

One should go to Landmark, Chennai. They have a fabulous offer of hardbound books at paperback prices. I picked up two books though was not keen of reading one of it in the first place "The Age of Turbulence" by Alan Greenspan. The other one is a Wiley's classic "Paths to Wealth through Common Stocks" by Phil Fischer. It has not got great reviews but need to see why is it bad.

The Panic of 1907: Lessons learned from the Market's Perfect Storm

Wow! Back to back awesome books. Just a nice little thing about availability of books. This book and the one that I am just reading was something that I have been searching for over a year. I would have atleast asked three bookshops from where I normally buy my books but all replied last year that were no copies available in India and one had to buy them from abroad. However, two weeks back I see a "heaps" lying all over the place at one of these places. Today publishers have become a lot more intelligent willing to give customers books that they need. I should be lucky to see a crash in stock markets and subsequent references made by many leading analysts comparing these crashes from a historical perspective forcing publishers to publish these outdated books. There are a few drawbacks too. The current book is not the exact reproduction of the earlier book. The publisher has comfortably added one chapter to give a newer perspective to the public, which kind of gives a feeling that you are being cheated of given a tampered book and probably overcharged for no reason.

Being a fast reader has its own advantages and disadvantages. There are so many times when I have wished I could slow down my reading to enjoy the few finer moments that the story is evolving into. Alas, it never happens. The same thing happened to me in this book too. This book restricts itself to only that one year "1907" and I was just coming off from reading "The House of Morgan", where surprising this section was dealt in lot less detail but yet discussed. Given the speed at which I normally read, I could not understand how important certain events played out during the crisis of 1907.

Today, I take a lot of things for granted.

Credit and availablity of capital: Today, being in the 21th century, and having witnessed one of the worst credit and liquidity crisis, I was never too concerned of countries falling into this trap for a long time. But imagine in 1907, there is no central bank to direct (barring Mr. Morgan himself). There are so many fall-back mechanisms that central banks have which was not available and importantly no GOLD standard. Honestly, moving out of these standards bring better flexibility on controlling money supply.

Bank falling like nine pins: Again, look back at reactions which we do today compared to what was happening 100 years back. Imagine seeing your bank going bankrupt and along with it goes your life savings. There are no central bank nor any government body that is insuring your services. That was life then. No guarantee on your money. The run on banks are faster leading to complication of an otherwise economic downward spiral. 1907, was a banking crisis and failure of one bank saw the sharp drop in customer confidence leading to sharp runs on banks. Non regulated entities like trust companies might have created the problem, but a lack of central bank was highlighted in this crisis and finally needed the help of Mr Morgan to unlock this crisis.

Promoter holding and control on lending: When I look at RBI and look at the single investor holding norms, voting rights, lending to group companies and more importantly lending to sensitive sectors, we should take our hats off. These were something that experiences tell us are important and critical things to understand else it can create havoc to depositors.

A perspective of any book is that it helps bring the drawback of another book. I thought the "House of Morgam" gave me a lot of insights into the life of Morgans. However, there was very little that was negative in this book. There are times when I saw a few exchanges made by Morgan and his partners, that they were living in darkness, hoping for things to become allright.

I can go on and on... The authors writing is unique, fast paced with little required to imagine/understand. Issues and implications of certain events are not only unfolded well but emphasised with due respect giving readers an opportunity to weigh the importance of these events. Imagine, there was a time when New York city found it difficult to raise ~USD 30 mn.